Bookmakers were mistaken with an assessment of results of a referendum in Great Britain

30 June 2016

On 23rd of June in Great Britain the referendum on which it was offered to royal citizen to vote for or against preserving by their country membership in the EU has taken place.

Great Britain

Contrary to estimations of bookmakers according to which the "remain" option considerably was exceeding "leave" option British have voted for an exit of Britain from the European Union. The bookmakers declare that they have wrongly "The truth is that bookmakers offer bets on political events not to help people to predict their results. We do this to get profit (or at least not to suffer heavy losses) and with respect thereto this referendum for us has taken place very well. Nobody at the main office of Ladbrokes will begin to criticize predictive capabilities of our probabilities, only money that we had earned will be estimated," —"The Guardian" is quoting the head of department of bets on political events of Ladbrokes Mathew Sheddik

According to him, one of the probable causes for a wrong assessment of results of a referendum by bookmakers was the fact that the majority of bets on political events were done by wealthy people who voted for preserving by Great Britain membership in the European Union. estimated referendum results.

On the night of June 24th when the polling offices have been closed, bookmaker of Ladbrokes gave coefficient 5,0 on the fact that Great Britain will leave the EU, at the same time it was supposed that the country will keep a registration with probability of 90%.

It was noted that the amount of bets on preserving membership considerably exceeded the amount of bets on vote for an exit from the EU therefore bookmakers have managed to get big profit. To a question of how it has turned out that bookmakers have mistakenly estimated referendum results, Paddy Power also speaks in his blog. Clients of the Irish bookmaker have put the considerable amounts on "remain" option. The company presents in its publication the data according to which it is possible to understand how its clients living in the south of England or the North in Scotland or Wales were betting.

So, 80% of amount of bets of players from London were the share of vote for a registration in the EU. Most of all on this outcome have put in Derry (93%) the North Irish, the Scottish Edinburgh (82%), Liverpool (76%) and Glasgow (76%).

Paddy Power has also allocated those cities where citizens have mainly put on an exit of the United Kingdom from the EU. 73% of amount of bets of players from Southampton were the share of this option. Besides, such rating of the cities had included Sunderland (71%), Sheffield (66%) and Leeds (61%).

We should note that the client of William Hill who has made the first bet in the amount of £100 000 ($138,300) for preserving by Britain membership in the EU with coefficient 1,4 as it has become clear, has lost this money. Other woman, from Kingston-upon-Thames, has relied on "Leave" in the amount of £10 000 ($14,600) with coefficient 3,75. She has got profit of £27,500 (more than $38 000).

By the morning on June 24th Betfair has reported that the amount of bets on a result of a referendum has punched a mark of £113 million ($156,9 million): the result has exceeded all expectations. At the same time only £36,7 million ($50,9 million) were put on the option 'leave".

After vote results have been presented, the prime minister David Cameron has made the speech and he has declared intention to leave a post of the head of the government. The most probable candidate for the prime minister's position, according to quotations of bookmaker Coral is considered the friend of Brexit Boris Johnson.

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