The evaluation of Trump’s chances - Betfair Exchange record

19 September 2016

The largest Betting Exchange Betfair has informed that evaluation of chances of Donald Trump to become the President of the United States reached its record mark – the odds of this event for the first time fell lower than 3.0. That is 33% of probability.

The evaluation of Trump’s chances - Betfair Exchange record

It is interesting but at the beginning of July his chances were estimated by Betfair Exchange punters only a little bit higher than 20% (odds 4.50).

The chances of the candidate of Republican Party have grown after his rival, democrat Hillary Clinton took the sick day because of pneumonia treatment. Americans didn’t know anything about her disease until Clinton felt bad on 11th of September during the mourning ceremony in memory of the victims of terrorist attacks in New York. Hillary’s faint occurred on the back of denial by her headquarters various reports on Clinton’s health problems and Ohio public opinion survey results for Trump. Ohio is one of the key states of the elections.

Last weeks the ratings of the candidate of Democratic Party had suffered from the usage of personal e-mail instead of office e-mail for exchange of confidential information. Society has taken this fact as incompetence.

“The size of the betting market on the next President of the USA has reached the mark of £38.5 million [$51 million – author’s note]. This sum is 10 times bigger than the sum that was traded in the similar market eight weeks prior to the elections of 2012”, - the spokesman of Betfair said in his comments for Business Insider.

The company also informed that lately the bets on the former candidate of Democrats Bernie Sanders and on the Vice-President Joe Biden started to be accepted again. The odds on Biden decreased from 100.0 to 46.0. The reasons are that due to health problems Clinton can withdraw as a candidate and in this case Democratic Party should look for substitution.

“The peculiarity of these elections is that the outcome of the presidential race is still unknown; candidates’ credibility of both parties is extremely low now. By this moment this market theoretically should demonstrate the struggle of two candidates, but punters are still betting on Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Tim Kaine. Punters have a twinge of intuition that between this day and the 4th of November anything can happen”, - Betfair decided.

Read also: Growth of TV-ratings of NFL will increase due to legalization of sports betting

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