Value bet is the mathematical betting strategy used with undervalued
events, which odds are valued higher than the real probability,
according to statistical date (rare according to other criteria).
example, some team wins away match one time out of three and in this
case, the odds on its winning 1 to 3.30 proposes positive
expectations so for 3 games you will bet $3 and get $3.3 Of course,
that’s only in theory as while taking statistics for a basis you
are not taking into consideration the rival of the team, its position
in the tournament, physical performance of the players, injuries and
many other also important factors.
Value bet. Theory
So, according to mathematics, to gain the success you need to make
bets, which mathematical expectation is higher than 0. What is the
mathematical expectation? That is the average winning (or loss) on
one bet that you will gain if you continue to make one and the same
bets on identical events for a long period of time.
us consider that you are making the bets on one number at standard
European roulette (with 1 EURO). Every time
you bet $1.
some and very large number of bets you will get this picture: you
will win in average one bet out of 37, getting the winning of $35 and
losing 36 bets out of 37.
lose on each
bet $1. So, every 37
bets you will lose in average $1 or $1/37 (nearly 2.7 cents) on each
And we see that during the roulette mathematical expectation will be
negative and that is why in long-term perspective such game will be
unprofitable for the player (and, therefore, profitable for casino).
To calculate mathematical expectation is possible by the following
МE = V * P(V) — L * P(L)
Variables in this formula mean:
— mathematical expectation;
V — possible winning;
P(V) — probability of winning;
L — possible loss, the size of your bet;
P(L) — probability of loss.
Bearing in mind the fact that the probability of winning and loss in
total has to be 1 (P(V) + P(L) = 1), this formula can be written
= V * P(V)
– L * (1 – P(V))
In sports betting – tennis value bets or football value bets – or
on any other kind of sports contrary to roulette, there is the
possibility to practice betting with positive mathematical
Let us say that bookmaker accepts the bet on the game
between teams A and B. Winning odds for the team A are 1.40 (that is,
with $1 bet your possible winning is 40 cents), for team B winning –
7.50 (possible winning – $6.5), draw – 4.00 (possible winning –
You have done your own analysis and came to the conclusion that
the probability of team A winning is 60% (or 0.6), the probability of
team B winning – 10% (0.1), the probability of draw – 30% (0.3).
Let us calculate mathematical expectation of all three possible bets
(for the bet $1):
ME(A) = 0,4 * 0,6
– 1 * (1 – 0,6) = 0,24 – 0,4 = – 0,16
= 6,5 * 0,1 – 1 * (1 – 0,1) = 0,65 – 0,9 = – 0,25
= 3 * 0,3 – 1 * (1 – 0,3) = 0,9 – 0,7 = 0,2
only one out of three possible bets will have positive mathematical
expectation with 20 cents. And this
will be draw
There is even simpler way to determine whether it is worth to bet on
this or that outcome. You need to divide 100 on the possible
probability (by using %) of the definite outcome.
The number you get
will be the odds with which your bet will gain zero mathematical
expectation. In order your bet become profitable, the odds need to be
higher than this number.
So, in the example that we have proposed you, the bet on team A will
be profitable with odds more than 1.67 (100/60), the bet on team B
with the odds more than 10 (100 / 10) and draw bet – with the odds
more than 3.33 (100/ 30).
Be attentive that undervalued event won’t probably be the most
possible one. From the example, that you have proposed the most
possible will be the winning of team A but due to extremely low odds,
the bet on this outcome will be unprofitable.
As the rule, odds for
favorites are usually lower than possible. That happens due to the
fact that too many players prefer to bet on favorites, considering
these bets to be “sure”. Bookmakers in their turn lower the odds
on the most popular outcomes.
That is why the majority of players, who bet on favorites as a rule
are making unprofitable by long-term perspective bets. It is easy to
assess that when the odds on the winning of the favorite are 1.1 (and
this occurs rather often), the probability of its winning should be
more than 91% (100 / 1.1) in order this bet has positive mathematical
expectation. As you guess, sport events, in which the favorite really
has such high chances for winning do not happen so often.
on this topic Value
bet of the day
So, to cut is short, let us point out the terms that are necessary
for “Value bet” to be successful:
1. You need to find the group of events that has the possibility for
value bet of the day ”.
For example, that can be the sport with a great number of matches
like tennis (tennis value bet) and bookmaker has no time for thinking
but you also need some time to work out all matches.
It is possible
to use “Value bet” in live betting where the goal during the
first minutes can change odds on Total, but this goal can be the last
My advice is to search among not very popular markets, as the
greater number of people wants to earn on “Value bet” the less
are differences of odds from statistical ones and the possibility to
You need to be good at mathematics and with “Excel” in order to
gather the data and calculate correctly the possibility of different
outcomes. The mistake in
lead to mistake
as a result,
the whole sense
of this strategy
will be lost.
3. Use conservative strategies of wealth
management. Remember that the bet on undervalued event brings the
profit in long-term perspective but this fact doesn’t rule out the
probability of serial of black streaks. Even casino time to time has
black days. Your strategy of wealth management has to give you the
ability to survive such days. Remember that Martingale and other
aggressive strategies of wealth management is the direct way to
Find the bookmakers that propose the best odds on appropriate odds as
the size of the odds influences directly on the mathematical
expectation of the bet. But please
bear in mind
It is possible that some dodgy companies won’t
return your money.